November home sales by neighborhood

table - home sales by neighborhood
November home sales

In November the number of homes that got offers in St. Paul was higher than the number of new listings. It is normal for the number of homes on the market to fall in November and reach the lo for the year in December.

Right now about 25% of the homes included in the chart as being for sale have offers on them. On average November home sellers got close to their asking price. In some neighborhoods, they got more than the asking price.

The overall median sales price went up by about as much as it went down in October.

The housing market strongly favors sellers. Overpriced homes sell once they are priced fairly. Average market time is less than 40 days and less than 30 days after the last price reduction.

Home sellers often take their homes off the market in November and put them back on again after the new year. Houses that are on the market sell faster than those that are off the market.

The numbers used to make the chart, were extracted from the NorthstarMLS and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

If you would like to know how much your house might sell for, contact me for a free no obligation consultation.

For more local real estate numbers please see Local market conditions and home prices

Absorption rates current and past

I am not sure why but I thought it would be fun to compare current absorption rates of housing with absorption rates from 10 years ago. In case anyone has forgotten ten years ago the housing market crashed and caused the great recession. These numbers are from before the Obama administration and before local housing prices hit rock bottom.

Absorption rates calculate how long it would take to sell all of the houses on the market at the current rate of consumption. The number is important because it has to do with the supply of houses and the demand for them.

Back in 2007, it was hard to sell a house:

Papert_2 Anoka County –  12.5 Months

Carver County –  11.7 Months

Dakota  County  – 9.8 Months

Hennepin  County  – 9.3 Months

Ramsey County – 10.2 Months

Scott County – 13.2  Months

Washington – 10.9


Here is a look at absorption rates today for the 7 county metro area which is like the 13 county metro area except smaller:

Anoka County –   1.7  Months

Carver County –  2.6 Months

Dakota  County  – 1.7 Months

Hennepin  County  – 1.8 Months

Ramsey County – 1.5 Months

Scott County – 2.2 Months

Washington – 2.2 Months

An appropriate graphic for the current absorption rate might be a q-tip. The reason I posted this is because when it comes to the housing market and the economy nothing is forever and there are no guarantees. There are no guarantees in life or in real estate.

I wonder what 2018 will bring? I have heard at least one prediction that the shortage of houses on the market will start to ease up a bit. We shall see.

Home showings rise as inventory falls

graph of home showings

Homes that are on the market are getting a lot of private showings. I see this with our own listings. An above average number of showings but the feedback from the buyer will state that the house is too small or not what the buyer is looking for.

Normally buyers do not ask to see homes that only sort of match their criteria, but these days they do because there just isn’t much on the market to look at. Sellers need to be aware that in addition to more showings they may also be getting more negative feedback.

Buyers are more willing to see houses for sale that are not quite what they are looking for because there are so few homes on the market. The data on the chart below is coming from “ShowingTime” which is the system local real estate professionals use for setting up private tours of homes that are on the market.

The number of showings per home is higher in St. Paul than the average for the Twin Cities. I am not exactly sure why that is because the shortage of homes is acute in both of the Twin Cities.


graph of home showings
Showings per home

When highs become new lows

I love numbers and data. The chart below shows the number of homes on the market in St. Paul. The high for 2017 is just a tad higher than the low was for 2016. This isn’t a picture of a healthy housing market. We are in a strong seller’s market. There isn’t much new construction.

Apartment vacancy rates remain low and rents are high. More housing would alleviate the shortage. Maybe some tiny houses and micro apartments to add to our current mix. I think this would be a great time to get creative and maybe even tweak some building codes and zoning rules.

Looser underwriting standards on condo/townhouse mortgages would also help. There are not enough condos/townhouses where FHA financing is accepted.

graph using data in the northstarMLS

Unless something changes we can expect more of the same in 2018.

Home sales by St. Paul Neighborhood

It is Monday which is the perfect day to look at some home sales numbers for Saint Paul, by neighborhood. The number of homes o the market remains low and the average days on market for October was 23. That means they are selling quickly.

The median home sale price is down from last month and so is the average price. We call that a seasonal variation. Hoem prices generally peak in April or May and reach the low for the year in December of January. If I wanted to buy a home I would be looking right now.

Here are home prices by neighborhood for October 2017. The data was extracted from the NorthstarMLS and includes a high percentage of single family homes including condos and townhouses that were sold last month.

The real estate market has been steady and predictable for the last couple of years and should remain so for the foreseeable future.

average prices by neighborhood
Home sales for October 2017

For more local numbers going back to about 2006 check the Local Market Conditions & home prices category.