2022 home sales in St. Paul

This is my year-end wrap-up for St. Paul home sales. Overall home sales were down from 2021 which was a peak year.  They were fewer home sales in 2022 than in any of the last five years:

Total home sales in St. Paul for 2022 – 3395,  In fact, if we go back 10 years the only year with fewer home sales in St. Paul than in 2022 was 2014.

2021-4264

2020-4028

2019-3547

2018-3707

Here are home sales by neighborhood for 2022:

Home Sales by nieghborhood
St. Paul home sales by neighborhood for 2022

2022 was a good year to sell a house. Median prices are are record highs and are still rising.  For most of the year interest rates were at historic lows making housing a little more affordable for buyers.  Median home prices went up over 6% from 2021 and 24% since 2018.

The demand for housing is strong but the supply is small. We will see fewer houses on the market this year and sales may be lower than last year. Home buyers may want to wait until interest rates or prices go down a bit before diving in. People who buy now with the plan to refinance later are taking a big risk.

For homeowners, 2023 is a great time to sell. There are more buyers than sellers.  The current absorption rate in St. Paul is under 2 months.

My data is from the NorthstarMLS which captures 90% or more of local home sales and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Even though it is just for St. Paul it accurately reflects the trends in the entire Twin Cities metro area.

December 2023 home sales

Here is a look at home sales in December 2022. December is generally the month with the fewest home sales and new listings. Last month was pretty typical in that regard.

The overall number of pending listings is the lowest I have seen in a few years. Houses are selling but not very many are being put up for sale. There is still less than a 2-month supply of houses for sale and it takes on average 29 days to sell a house.

In some neighborhoods, the average sale price was higher than the average list price which means prices are still going up in those neighborhoods. Overall sale prices were up. Once the interest rates went down a little mortgage applications rose which may mean more competition for a smaller number of houses on the market this month.

table of home sales by neighborhood
St. Paul home sales by neighborhood December 2022

For more local real estate numbers please see Local market conditions and home prices.

Real estate is local.

Months supply slowly increasing

The supply of homes for sale as measured in months has been low for almost a decade.  After what I hope what I hope was our all time low of a months supply in April of 2021, the supply has been slowly rising. There is currently a 1.8 month supply of houses on the market in St. Paul. That is very low especially for December. The seller’s market remains strong but may be weakening.

The sellers market remains strong but may be weakening a bit due to higher interest rates, inflation and maybe because houses are so expensive.

Months supply is a measure of how long it would take for all houses currently on the makret. So far this month it takes an avererage of 36 days to sell a house in St. Paul.

Housing supply
Housing supply 6 month rolling average

How long does it take to sell a house in December 2022?

The most common question I get from homeowners is: “How long will it take to sell my house”.  I pulled up some numbers from the Multiple Listing Service and the average amount of time it takes to sell a house in the Twin Cities metro area is about 30 days. Houses that are in the 250,000 to 350,000 price range sell the fastest and houses that are priced over 500K take a couple of days longer to sell.

There are a lot of variables. I suppose the numbers refer to the “average” house. The house needs to be priced right. Typically it takes a little longer to sell a house in December than it takes in March.

I decided to look at data from the last ten years for some perspective. It used to be pretty normal to have a house on the market for six months or more. In the last couple of years, most of our listings have gotten offers after a day or two on the market.

How long it takes to sell
Average days on market 3-month rolling averages

November Home Sales – St. Paul, MN

Here are some home sales and prices data by St. Paul neighborhood for November 2022. The number of homes that went on the market is the lowest we have seen since 2017. The number of home sales is was pretty average for a November. There are usually fewer home sales in the winter than in the spring and summer.

Median days on market was a low 19 days. Fewer sellers got more than the asking price which is also typical for November. Median sales prices remained strong and were up from October.

There has been a shortage of houses for sale for a few years now and the demand for housing has been strong which is why we are seeing a strange seller’s market even though interest rates are higher.

Downtown St. Paul looks a bit more like a buyer’s market.

November home sales
November 2022 Home sales

The data used to make the table was extracted from the NorthstarMLS which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The data was gently sorted, never shaken or stirred, in an MS Excell spreadsheet.

For more local home sale data check out Local Market Conditions & Home Prices. 

If you would like to know how much your home will sell for and about how long it will take contact me for a free no-obligation consultation.

That house cost much more than the purchase price

A 250,000 dollar house will cost more than half a million dollars and it will take most people most of a lifetime to pay for it. This is what a 30-year mortgage looks like these days:

Principal $250,000.00
Interest $323,604.54
Total Cost $573,604.54

 

It is true the house costs more than twice as much as the amount borrowed to pay for it. Sure most people will have a down payment so let’s assume that the buyers paid $275,000 for the house and had $25,000 for a down payment.  That house of course is below the median for the area.

The monthly payment on the loan is close to 1,600 without including property taxes which in St. Paul will add up to a few hundred dollars a month or homeowners insurance which will also add a couple hundred dollars a month to the payment. Go ahead and add $500 to the payment.

There all also monthly utility costs and maintenance expenses. Houses do have to be heated this time of year. The smaller the house the lower the heating and cooling costs and maybe the maintenance costs too.

Renting is often even more expensive if we compare comparable properties. Generally speaking, the owner needs to make a profit. It is becoming harder to pay the rent and save up to buy a house. We call it “rent trapping”.

Housing is expensive. There really isn’t any other way of looking at the numbers.

Home buying is definitely slowing down. Some of it is because of the season and some is due to the interest rates that have gone down but are still more than 6.5%. First-time home buyers in particular are facing a brutal market.

Let’s hope that rates start going down or that wages go way up or that we find a way to create affordable housing. There is an urgent need for more housing in all price ranges.