Monday is a good day for numbers. Here is a recap of home sales by neighborhood in St. Paul for the month of November 2018. Sales activity slows a bit this time of year. Sale prices are on average lower the listing prices in most but not all neighborhoods.
In November it took an average of 59 cumulative days on market to sell a house. That is fast for November. Average sale prices are up about 20K from last November.
We are still in a strong seller’s market. The number of new listings was lower than the number of pending sales for November. Could go on and on but I won’t. 🙂
The numbers used to make the chart were extracted from the NorthstarMLS which is deemed reliable but not gaurateed. This data covers a high percentage of local real estate sales activity.
For more local numbers that are not at all hyper please see local market conditions and home sales. Real estate is local. If you would like to know how much your St. Paul home might sell for please call or write. My contact information is on the right and yes there is an @ in my email address, not an (at) and like most email addresses it isn’t case sensitive.
I have been reading economic and housing news so that I can make some predictions for the 2019 housing market. We all know that nothing stays the same. In St. Paul we have had a shortage of homes for sale for the last six years and prices have gone back up to what they were before the great recession.
It looks like 2019 will be kind of like 2018. It will be another good year for home sellers. If for some reason the number of buyers decreases, which seems unlikely, the number of homes on the market will rise and prices will start to level off.
It is also possible that the number of homes on the market could start to climb if more homeowners decide to sell. There are a lot of homeowners who are 65 or older. Will they put their homes on the market? According to the National Association of Realtors, the “typical home seller in 2018 was 55 years old”
To people who are young 65 seems terribly old but it isn’t too old for homeownership and I don’t see any evidence that that large group of people who are 65 or better are all going to sell at once. National census statistics indicate that at least 75% of those 65 and older live in homes that they own.
People who are over 65 generally don’t move very often and they are not the oldest homeowners. What about the 65 to 100-year-old homeowner? Statisticians like to lump people who are 55 to 100 years old into one huge category and make assumptions about their housing needs. Big mistake.
Experts have been predicting a housing sell off as baby boomers age or die off. The generation spans 18 years. Taking that into consideration it is possible that there will be an increase in the number of homes for sale as baby boomers hit their mid 70’s? 80’s? 90’s or 100’s?
It seems like there should be plenty of buyers for those houses but if the number of homes on the market goes way up prices will go down.
As for the immediate future, there is still a shortage of homes for sale in St. Paul and plenty of willing buyers. The number of homes on the market will have to go way up before the market starts to shift to more of a buyers market. I don’t think that will happen in 2019 or in 2020 for that matter. Maybe in the late ‘2020s or early 2030s when the oldest baby boomers hit their mid-80’s, there will be a gradual sell-off.
I see no convincing evidence that there is going to be any kind of a housing sell-off as soon as 2020. If there is a sell-off it will be closer to 2030.
I thought I would start the week strong with some numbers. The graph below shows absorption rates for single-family homes including condos and townhouses in the Twin Cities Metro area.
Absorption rates calculate how long it would take for all the homes on the market to be sold or absorbed. We clearly have a shortage of homes for sale. We call this a seller’s market. I have heard some rumors that the market is changing but I have not seen any data about our local market that suggests a change or shift.
Real estate is local. Some like to call it “hyper-local” but I am not even sure what the hyper part means.
The red line shows median home sale prices in St. Paul and the blue line shows average condo sale prices in downtown St. Paul. Historically median prices have been higher downtown than in the rest of the city but that changed in late 2015.
Right now there are plenty of opportunities to own a home in downtown St. Paul. Average cumulative days on market (CDOM) is currently at 123 days. For the rest of the city excluding downtown CDOM is 64.8.
Now might be a better time to buy a downtown St. Paul home.
I am starting to see predictions for 2019 and beyond that suggest home prices will continue to rise but at a much slower pace. Some predictions indicate that a buyers market is just around the corner and that corner is in just a few years.
We never know what is going to happen. All we can do is watch so that we know what is happening or what has happened.
If you would like to know how much your home is worth contact me via email, text message or phone call. I love numbers.