If you had bought that house 10 years ago . . .

Sometimes it is fun to look back and so today in honor of throwback Thursday I am going to publish some home sales prices by neighborhood from 2010.

chart of home sale prices
Home sales in St. Paul for June 2010

2010 was a special kind of year. Home sales and home prices ticked up a little because there were some tax incentives for home buyers and sellers. Once those incentives went away we reached what I call the bottom of the housing market crash.

Locally home prices hit a low in 2009 and then went up a little in 2010 and then hit a new low in 2011.

This recession is different and the biggest impact it is having on the housing market right now is that far fewer homeowners want to sell and a lot of people want to buy.

If you bought a house in 2010 you probably have a great deal of equity unless you took the equity out and spent it.

Yup, I have been doing this for a long time, almost 20 years. Something to consider when you hire a REALTOR.

 

30% fewer homes on the market in the metro area

If you are looking to buy a home right now you might be noticing that the number of homes for sale is particularly low for July. Last July there are about 10,094 homes on the market in the 7 county metro area. This July there are 7,042 about 30% fewer.

Real estate is seasonal. The dips on the chart are the winter and the peaks are in the summer. We are in a peak month right now.

There is a 1.7. month supply of homes for sale right now. Affordable houses are particularly scarce as the lack of supply continues to drive prices up.

June home prices by neighborhood

In June everything went up. The number of homes on the market, new listing, home sales, prices all went up from the May 2020 numbers.

Even the average number of days on the market went up from 22 to 24 days. I attribute the increase to the civil unrest at the beginning of the month that halted activity in parts of the city for several days.

The number of New listing was 12% lower than June 2019 and as a result the number of home sales in St. Paul were down by more than 11% as compared with last year. Median home prices are up by more than 5% from last June.

If you plan on selling your home it won’t take long and if you plan to buy you will pay top dollar as you compete with other home buyers.

This market isn’t sustainable during a recession but I don’t think prices will go down anytime soon because even if there were half as many homebuyers there still would not be enough of a supply to meet the demand.

home sale chart
June home sales by St. Paul NEighborhood

The numbers used to make the chart are from the NorthstarMLS which are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. There are few guarantees in life.

Year over year decline in number of homes for sale

The number of homes on the market continues to decline in the metro area and beyond. These numbers were just published by the Saint Paul Area Association of Realtors. We have even fewer homes for sale this year than we had last year. Fewer homeowners are selling while the number of people who want to buy remains high.

The silver lining for homeowners is that prices are strong because the demand is strong and the supply is week. I have been closely watching the number of homes for sale in St. Paul and that number remains at historic lows for June. Homes are selling quickly in St. Paul with median days on the market of 13 and an average of 26. On average home, sellers are getting more than the asking price.

 

metro area homes for sale chart
Homes listed for sale by week

 

Tight supply and high demand

The current recession isn’t like the last one which was lead by the crash of the housing market. Our housing market remains strong but at the same time, the shortage of homes for sale that we have been experiencing for the last few years continues to worsen.

It is possible that we hit bottom in May with the fewest homes listed for sale. It is like September came early. With fewer homes being put on the market the total number of homes on the market is decreasing as buyers continue to buy houses.

During the last recession, demand went down while the supply went up. With fewer homes on the market and high demand for homes, the prices continue to go up.

In February and March, new listings were up from last year. In a typical year, there are fewer homes on the market from November through January than at any other time of the year.

Right now there are about 14% fewer homes for sale in Anoka, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, and Washington counties than there were a year ago, and the average cumulative number of days on the market has gone from 28 days to 26 days.

chart of new listings
New listings 5 county metro area

The chart was created using RPR, which is the Realtors Property Resource which is a  database that contains most of the real estate in the US.

I love data.

New home for sale listings in the metro area

We were off to a strong start in 2020. The number of new listings of homes for sale was up. Then came Covid-19 and the stay at home order. Even though there were layoffs home buying continued at a strong pace.

The number of homeowners who wanted to sell declined. It can be challenging to stay home 26 hours a day and I definitely have clients who have decided to wait to put their house on the market.

Here is a look at weekly listing activity from the Minneapolis Area REALTORS for the Twin Cities region.


We were off to a strong start at the beginning of the year. I made a red line where Minnesota stay at home order started. It is possible that we will see more homes being put on the market in the fall and winter unless that is when the second wave of COVID-19 hits.