Back to work – 2007 is here

I ended up working most of the holiday weekend.  I am not complaining, I spent my time showing condos and working on some  administrivia.

The buyers are back and the email came fast and furious all weekend.  My sense is that the sellers who took their homes off the market in November and December will start putting them back on the market.  If they all wait until Spring we will break every record for the number of homes on the market in the Twin Cities. (see market pie)

This is my first post for 2007, so that means I am supposed to make some predictions.  I am not ready to do that yet.  I went back to a post I wrote in January of 2006, with predictions for the year.

“The national median existing-home price for all housing types is forecast to rise 5.1 percent to $219,700 this year. The median new-home price is expected to increase 6.0 percent this year to $245,200 (NAR).  – National Association of Realtors
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist noted on January 10th, “A lot of demand has been met over the last five years, and a modest rise in mortgage interest rates is causing some market cooling. Along with regulatory tightening on nontraditional mortgages, there will be fewer investors in the market this year. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to trend up gradually to 6.7 percent during the second half of the year. This will preserve generally favorable affordability conditions and keep the housing market at a more sustainable sales pace.”

2006 did not quite work out as predicted.   On a national level prices did not go up they went down.  Here in Minnesota we saw a modest increase in home prices or 2 to 3.5%.  In general mortgage rates went down in the second half of 2006 to around 6%.  I am not sure that interest rates had much of an impact on the housing market.

If I  were to make a prediction for 2007 I would be inclined to predict fairly strong sales from March until June as some of the “wait and see” buyers get off the fence and buy something.  Unless something changes, I think 2006 and 2007 will look alike, except the foreclosure rate will be higher.

The real estate industry in the twin cities are will see some changes.  There simply is not enough business to support the number of REALTORS we currently have.  Our local associations have predicted that as many as 40% of our local REALTORS will leave the business.  I will be following the numbers closely to see if the prediction comes true.

This January I will be getting my Minnesota real estate brokers license.  The classes start in the middle of the month.  Keller Williams Integrity Realty currently holds my Minnesota real estate license and I plan to have them hold my brokers license as well.

As I go through the classes and the tests I am sure there will be some blogfood in there somewhere, maybe even a rant or two.