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Absorption rates

Posted on by Teresa Boardman

 
Absorption rates are a calculation of how long it will take for all the

cotton swabs
cotton swabs

 homes on the market to be sold, or absorbed, at the current rate of homes sales and with the current number of homes on the market.  The numbers tell us if we are in a buyers market or a sellers market.  I do love numbers and these numbers are in months, the data used came from the RMLS, (MLS) and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Sadly there are no guarantees in life. These are for the seven county metro area which is like the 13 county metro area except smaller and are for the last 30 days.

Anoka County 5.1 Months
Carver County 6.3 Months
Dakota County 4.7 Months
Hennepin County 3.1 Months
Ramsey County 5.7 Months
Scott County 5.1 Months
Washington County 5.0 Months

We are at the cotton swab stage where there is really very little inventory to absorb. . . yet it does not feel at all like any sellers market that I can remember.   Absorption rates were at the qtip level last April as well. 

For related posts see Local Market Conditions and Home Prices

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Home prices & sales by neighborhood

Posted on by Teresa Boardman
march2011
march 2011

Monday is a great day for posting some local housing numbers because it is not Tuesday.  The chart above was made from numbers from our local MLS for St. Paul, Minnesota for the month of March 2011. The data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed but there are few guarantees in life.

Not much has changed since last month.  Prices are up very slightly. Pending sales were up over February 2011 but it should be noted that February is shorter than March and that does account for a few sales.

The only thing these numbers really tell me is that the housing market it fairly stable.

For more numbers like these please so the Local Market Conditions & Home Prices Category.

is there a new normal?

Posted on by Teresa Boardman

 Maybe there is a new normal in the housing market but there is still some of the hold normal too.  Here in the Twin Cities real estate sales are seasonal.  In the last couple of years the good old US government has tried to stimulate the housing market with tax incentives and well it didn’t do any good except it put a few kinks in  the normal seasonal home buying curve.  

This chart is from a report I created in book a showing.  It shows home viewing activity by month for the metro area.   There is a direct correlation between home viewing and home buying.  Buyers generally see homes before they buy and the more home viewings there are in a month the more home sales there are the next month.  It should be noted that the inventory of homes on the market is lower right now than it was in 2009 or 2010 which will affect the number of showings but should not impact the shape of the curve.  

This chart shows the seasonal home sales curve.  It looks like this year is a little more old normal than new normal. 

home showing chart
three year comparison of home showings 

Home buying activity is always the highest in the middle of the year and usually the lowest at the end of the year.  This year there are no special tax incentives for buying a home but prices have gone down and so have interest rates and it is starting to look a little more like 2009 which was more like the old normal than the new normal.  
 

Laurel Terrace – Riley Row House

Posted on by Teresa Boardman

Riley Row House 286-294 Laurel Avenue, on the corner of Nina and Laurel.  So close to the cathedral that you can see it and close to Summit Avenue.  This building is one of St. Paul’s hidden gems and is considered to be one of the finest Victorian era row houses in the country. 

It was built in 1887 and the exterior is made of sandstone, granite, brick and slate.  F. Scott Fitzgerald lived there for a year between 1808 and 1809.  There are other amazing historic homes and rowhouses in the immediate area.  It is one of my favorite areas to walk or bike. 

Riley Row
Riley Row
laurel terrace2 wm
Riley Row
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Competition for buyers

Posted on by Teresa Boardman
homesweethome

It is a buyers market and has been for a few years now but and there is always a but . . buyers have gotten too complacent and sometimes the home they really want gets away.  The best homes at the most competitive prices still sell very quickly.   Some in just a couple of days.  Buyers who have found the right home should not wait and see if the price comes down, they should make an offer now.  It doesn’t need to be a full price offer. 

Every year I work with at least one buyer who lets the home they really want get away. It happens when we are in a sellers market and when we are in a buyers market. 

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After the 1st or next Spring

Posted on by Teresa Boardman
springflowers
spring flowers

This is the time of year that callers want to see about putting their home on the market “after the first” or in the spring.  The sellers who want to list right after the first are probably ready and if they are not they can still be ready for Spring if they hurry but time is running out.

The spring market seems like it is a long way off but it isn’t.  Most years buyers who plan to buy in the spring or summer are already looking in February and some years we see the most offers on homes during the month of April.  If selling in the spring is the goal now is the time to get started.

The first step is to clean the place up and declutter,  The next step for St. Paul home sellers is to order the truth in housing report. It is a good idea to have things fixed up before the inspector arrives.  Here is a list of items that are most often written up.  Look at the list, fix what you can and then call for the inspection.  You can make repairs after the inspection but only the inspector can change the report.

The city does not require that the deficiencies be corrected but the home will look better to buyers if the inspection report is clean.

Take care of other small repairs before putting your home on the market because it will pay off in the long run.   Buyers will offer thousands less for a home that needs a couple hundred dollars worth of repairs. 

Call your lender and find out how much you owe on your home.  I know it is disappointing but how much you paid for it or how much you owe on it doesn’t matter to perspective buyers.  If you owe more on it than you can sell it for consider staying put or renting it out.  Asking for more than the home is worth just means it will be on the market for a couple of years.  I see it all the time.   If you must move start working on getting the money you will need to bring to the closing.

The goal should be to get your home on the market as soon as February  1st and no later than March 15th if the goal is to get the most exposure and sell it in the spring.

Last year a couple of people that wanted to list in the spring totally missed the target and by the time they were ready home sales had already started to slow down.

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