I’ll be working today, rounding up some numbers so that we can get ready for tax season and tieing up some loose ends to close out 2018.
Tomorrow is the day I’ll take down Christmas decorations and I have a little project I started over the weekend touching up some paint in the dining room and in a hallway. There is something about fresh paint.
I want to make some predictions for the real estate market in 2019.
Most experts are saying that in 2019 there will be a market shift and that the shift will favor buyers. I am trying to figure out how that is going to happen. I don’t see any evidence that the number of houses on the market is going to raise enough or that demand is going to slow enough to shift the market.
I do think that the recent stock market drop and DOW plunge freaked everyone out. The real estate market is like the rest of the economy in that it is cyclical. The market hasn’t been healthy for a decade. First, it favored buyers and home prices dropped which hurt a lot of homeowners and then for a year or two it was a bit more balanced.
During the last several years we have seen a strong seller’s market with rising prices and now rising interest rates. I am not sure why we are not calling it a housing crisis. Why are there so many people living on the street and in tent camps and homeless shelters when the economy is so strong and unemployment so low? Could part of the problem be lack of affordable housing? Could tiny houses and micro apartments be part of the solution?
Some of what we are seeing in housing boils down to demographics. Older people do not move in great numbers. Younger people who should be buying their first home are paying down college debt. There is little new construction of single-family homes and new construction is unaffordable for most.
2019 should prove to be an interesting year. I think home prices will go up but not by much. Buyers will have a hard time finding affordable homes.
People who have to sell will sell but I don’t see any evidence that more people are going to put their homes on the market. Add higher interest rates to the mix and 2019 probably won’t be a remarkable year for home sales.