Next week’s elections on Tuesday, November 4th, are very important. I think we are often too focused on national elections when local elections can have a huge impact on our daily lives.

In addition to voting for a new mayor, there are other important issues on the ballot, and I want to bring one of them to your attention:

St. Paul City Question 1 is on the ballot as a referendum in St. Paul on November 4, 2025.

A “yes” vote supports amending the city charter to permit city officers to issue administrative citations that carry penalties of civil fines.

A “no” vote opposes amending the city charter to permit city officers to issue administrative citations that carry penalties of civil fines.

I’ll be voting no on this. I don’t believe the city should have the power to issue administrative citations (fines). My opinion is based on how the city handles building code enforcement by registering homes occupied by seniors as “vacant”.  Code and ordinance enforcement in St. Paul is compliance-driven and not always fair or equal.

“This referendum would either retain or repeal Ordinance Ord. 25-2, which was signed into law by the St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter (DFL) in January of 2025.

Ordinance Ord. 25-2 authorized the St. Paul City Council to impose civil penalties or administrative fines for violations of city ordinances as an alternative to criminal citations. Individuals accused of violations must receive notice and have an opportunity to appeal before any penalty takes effect. The appeals process allows for the consideration of a person’s financial circumstances. Under the ordinance, district courts are also granted jurisdiction to enforce unpaid civil penalties.^[1]

I am not in favor of this ordinance, which expands the city’s power. I base my opinion on decades of experience with the city. I do not think our current system of enforcement can be administered fairly. I have seen what happens when the city piles on fine after fine that property owners can not pay. The fines are assessed to property taxes, and the owner ultimately ends up in foreclosure. This feels so wrong.

The City of St. Paul struggles to manage trash collection systems. I can not imagine how giving them more power would end well for St. Paul residents.

Please vote no on St. Paul City Question 1.

This just in from Minnesota Realtors, which is the Minnesota Realtors Association:

Home sales up as rates fall
Both buyer and seller activity increased statewide in September. More than half of Minnesota counties showed year-over-year gains in both sales (58.6%) and new listings (54.0%).

Mortgage rates have improved significantly, dropping to around 6.35% in September from 6.82% in June and nearly 7.0% in January. Home buyers, especially first-timers, are sensitive to rate changes, and even small improvements in affordability will bring more buyers off the sidelines.

“Higher mortgage rates and tight inventory have been the biggest factors holding back sales this year,” said Patti Jo Fitzpatrick, President of Minnesota Realtors®. “But with the ‘friendlier’ rates and more inventory lately, activity could pick up in the fourth quarter.”

The housing market remains “rate dependent,” rates are “Fed dependent,” and the Fed is “data dependent.” Recent economic data makes rate cuts more likely. In the coming months, the 10-year yield—which informs mortgage rates—is one of several key indicators to watch.

September 2025 Statewide Key Market Indicators (% represents year-over-year change):

New Listings—9,076 (up 4.9%)
Pending Sales—5,977 (up 5.9%)
Closed Sales—6,229 (up 7.0%)
Median Sales Price—$357,200 (up 2.1%)
Days on Market—41 (up 5.1%)
Percent of List Price Received —97.4% (down 0.3%)
Inventory—17,957 (up 2.4%)
Months Supply—3.2 (0.0%)

Here in St. Paul, there are more homes on the market at higher prices.

Here is a quick look at September 2025 home sales by neighborhood in St. Paul, MN. The number of homes on the market is up as are new listings. At the same time, pending sales are down. Prices are still rising.  Homes for sale in downtown St. Paul are at or near an all-time high.

During times of uncertainty, people are less likely to buy a house.

The numbers used to make the table were exported from the NorthstarMLS, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

According to market analysis from mid-2025, the U.S. housing market is on track to be the slowest in more than 25 years. A combination of high mortgage rates, persistent home prices, and resulting affordability challenges has created a standstill where both buyers and sellers are hesitant to make a move. 

The year isn’t over yet. Here in St. Paul, the median number of days on the market for a house in August was 16 days.  Homes are still selling for more than the asking price. Homeowners are slow to list their houses, but this is nothing new.

Homes are selling quickly and often for over the asking price. Most of the city is experiencing a seller’s market, with a two-month supply of homes for sale, while downtown St. Paul is in a buyer’s market with a 10-month supply of condos.  The condo market is experiencing a slowdown city-wide as high insurance rates result in higher association dues.

The average sales price downtown for July 2025 is high, but only because it is based on six sales, and two of those sales were in Lowertown in the Great Northern building. Each is larger and more expensive than the average downtown condo.

The number of new listings went up a bit in July, which means there are slightly more homes on the market. Prices continue to rise due to high demand and low supply.

The data used in the chart above was extracted from the NorthstarMLS, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Overall economic conditions have a significant impact on the housing market, and the housing market, in turn, has a substantial impact on overall economic conditions. If workers cannot find affordable housing, businesses cannot grow. If people do not have jobs, they cannot buy a house or afford housing.

The overall growth of the Minnesota economy was 0.5% for the first quarter of 2025. No growth is projected for the rest of the year.

The unemployment rate is below the national average. I know a few people who have been displaced by AI (artificial intelligence) this year and I am sure we will see more.