More numbers for 2018

I don’t normally publish so many numbers in one week but this is the first full work week of the new year and I have numbers. The chart below shows the number of home sales by neighborhood for 2018 and the average sale price and days on market.

The most expensive home sold in St. Paul in 2018 sold for 2.4 million which was more than the asking price and it sold in 11 days. The home is located on Mississippi Blvd in the Merriam Park neighborhood.

There are one house and one condo that sold for $15,000. They were the lowest sale amount in 2018. They were both in the Payne Phalen neighborhood. One sold in 4 days the other in 30 days.

Overall homes in the Como neighborhood sold the fastest with average cumulative days on market of 24. Homes in the downtown St. Paul neighborhood took the longest to sell with an average of 74 cumulative days on market. Most of the homes downtown are condos and on average they take longer to sell than other types of housing.

It should be noted that the neighborhoods do not all have the same amount of housing in them.

The data used to make the table was extracted from the NorthstarMLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The numbers were gently sorted and never stirred.

They sell faster and faster

In 2011 it may have taken 77 days to sell the same home that sold in 30 days in 2018.

Some homes sell in a day, while other homes will stay on the market for months. How a home is presented and priced makes a difference.

graph of days on market
Average cumulative days on market – St. Paul

CDOM in the chart stands for “cumulative days on market”, that includes the entire time a home was on the market before it sold . . . which gets complicated but I like to use the number as a guide and I can drill down and look at the numbers for various neighborhoods and price points.

The chart was made using data from the Northstar MLS which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Home prices and sales by St. Paul Neighborhood

Welcome to the first full work week of 2019. I feel as though the work from 2018 never really stopped but I like the idea of a new beginning.

I am going to kick the year off with home sales and prices by St. Paul neighborhood for the month of December 2018. As for as Decembers go last month was pretty typical for home sales. Home buying and selling activity is generally lower in December than it is in other months. We can call it the holiday effect.

Home sold at a slightly faster rate in December than they did in November. The story for 2018 has been the extremely low inventory of homes on the market and ultimately that resulted in fewer home sales for the year.

Table with data
December home sales St. Paul, Minnesota

The numbers used to make the chart were extracted from the NorthstarMLS which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This data covers a high percentage of local real estate sales activity.

For more local numbers that are not at all hyper please see local market conditions and home sales. Real estate is local. If you would like to know how much your St. Paul home might sell for please call or write. My contact information is on the right and yes there is an @ in my email address, not an (at) and like most email addresses it isn’t case sensitive.

Low but not record breaking

A year ago today I wrote about the record-breaking low number of homes on the market. Typically we see the fewest homes on the market in December and early January. This year there are 298 homes on the market in St. Paul that do not have offers on them. Last year I reported 243 homes on the market on this date. Maybe 243 was a record that won’t be broken.

If you are planning on selling your home this spring now it a good time to get it ready to sell.

This is what I wrote on January 3, 2018:

Graph by year homes for sale
Homes for sale in the Twin Cities

This isn’t the first time I have written about a record-breaking low number of homes listed for sale. In St Paul, there are only 243 homes on the market that do not have offers on them. The data in the graph comes from the Northstar MLS which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer demand remains high and on average homes are selling quickly.

We are in a strong seller’s market. It isn’t a healthy market and has been out of balance for the last several years.

Home sales by St. paul neighborhood

Monday is a good day for numbers. Here is a recap of home sales by neighborhood in St. Paul for the month of November 2018. Sales activity slows a bit this time of year. Sale prices are on average lower the listing prices in most but not all neighborhoods.

In November it took an average of 59 cumulative days on market to sell a house. That is fast for November. Average sale prices are up about 20K from last November.

We are still in a strong seller’s market. The number of new listings was lower than the number of pending sales for November.  Could go on and on but I won’t. 🙂

chart of home sales by neighborhood
november 2018 Home sales

The numbers used to make the chart were extracted from the NorthstarMLS which is deemed reliable but not gaurateed. This data covers a high percentage of local real estate sales activity.

For more local numbers that are not at all hyper please see local market conditions and home sales. Real estate is local. If you would like to know how much your St. Paul home might sell for please call or write. My contact information is on the right and yes there is an @ in my email address, not an (at) and like most email addresses it isn’t case sensitive.

What does the future hold for real estate in St. Paul?

I have been reading economic and housing news so that I can make some predictions for the 2019 housing market. We all know that nothing stays the same. In St. Paul we have had a shortage of homes for sale for the last six years and prices have gone back up to what they were before the great recession.

It looks like 2019 will be kind of like 2018. It will be another good year for home sellers. If for some reason the number of buyers decreases, which seems unlikely, the number of homes on the market will rise and prices will start to level off.

It is also possible that the number of homes on the market could start to climb if more homeowners decide to sell. There are a lot of homeowners who are 65 or older. Will they put their homes on the market? According to the National Association of Realtors, the “typical home seller in 2018 was 55 years old”

To people who are young 65 seems terribly old but it isn’t too old for homeownership and I don’t see any evidence that that large group of people who are 65 or better are all going to sell at once. National census statistics indicate that at least 75% of those 65 and older live in homes that they own.

People who are over 65 generally don’t move very often and they are not the oldest homeowners. What about the 65 to 100-year-old homeowner? Statisticians like to lump people who are 55 to 100 years old into one huge category and make assumptions about their housing needs.  Big mistake.

Experts have been predicting a housing sell off as baby boomers age or die off. The generation spans 18 years. Taking that into consideration it is possible that there will be an increase in the number of homes for sale as baby boomers hit their mid 70’s? 80’s? 90’s or 100’s?

It seems like there should be plenty of buyers for those houses but if the number of homes on the market goes way up prices will go down.

As for the immediate future, there is still a shortage of homes for sale in St. Paul and plenty of willing buyers. The number of homes on the market will have to go way up before the market starts to shift to more of a buyers market. I don’t think that will happen in 2019 or in 2020 for that matter. Maybe in the late ‘2020s or early 2030s when the oldest baby boomers hit their mid-80’s, there will be a gradual sell-off.

I see no convincing evidence that there is going to be any kind of a housing sell-off as soon as 2020. If there is a sell-off it will be closer to 2030.

 

Chart
The number of homes on the market and for sale in St. Paul, MN

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