Long range US housing market forcast

Forecasting the housing market is kind of like predicting the weather. There are unknowns and unforeseeable circumstances that can change everything.

With that in mind:

Housing prices will rise slightly and sales will dip next year before making a comeback in 2024, according to Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist.

That scenario actually makes sense to me. Right now there isn’t any evidence that prices will go down but they are rising much more slowly than they rose during 2021 which was a record-smashing year.

My own prediction for St. Paul is that home prices will rise by 3% give or take half a percent. That is more than the 1% projection for the country but real estate is local. I usually don’t make this type of prediction but I am pretty confident about it.

We will see fewer home sales due to the higher interest rates and possible recession heading into 2023.

As much as we like to have the business I can’t recommend buying a house without a secure job.

As for the projections regarding home sales we need to keep in mind that 2021 was a peak year.  There will be fewer home sales in 2022 and 2023 than there were in 2021 which is why we call it a peak year.

If we take that logic further and look to 2024 home sales will be up as compared with 2023 which will likely be an off-peak year for home sales.


National Association of Realtors Forcast Nov. 2022


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