Sell off predictions may be premature

For years I have been reading about the “great real estate sell off”. Experts were predicting that starting in the year 2020, which is now less than a year away, baby boomers would start selling their houses.

I wouldn’t count on it. The oldest baby boomers will turn 73 this year. At the same time, the fastest growing segment of the workforce is those who are over 65.

There are baby boomers in their 60’s who have their 25 to 35-year-old children living with them and are helping them financially.

There were predictions that the great sell-off would result in a glut of houses on the market. Some even opined that real estate values would go down because of the sell-off.  I don’t see how that prediction can come true considering how large the Millennial generation is.

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the number of homes put up for sale will rise slowly and that in 2032 we may see a sell-off because those who were born at the beginning of the baby boom and who are still alive today will live another 13 years on average. The oldest Millennials will be 51 by then.

People who are 65 and older have the highest rate of homeownership. I know my math isn’t exact but it isn’t any better or worse than anyone else’s.

U.S. census bureau and homeownership


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