Housing supply absorption rates

Gradually and oh so slowly the number of homes on the market in St. Paul is rising. Here are absorption rates for 4 metro counties. The numbers for Dakota county are almost exactly the same as they are for Anoka County.

absorption rates
absorption rates

Absorption rates show how long it will take for all the homes on the market to be sold if buyers continue to purchase them at the current rate. Also, assuming that the supply of houses on the market remains steady. The overall absorption rate for the 7 county metro area is 1.6 months.

Housing supply is the tightest in Ramsey County and the trend line is flat. We are in a very strong seller’s market. In a balanced market that does not favor buyers or sellers, there is a six month supply of houses on the market.

During the housing market crash ten years ago we saw absorption rates at around ten months. That was a strong buyers market. Some of those buyers are today’s sellers.

Nationally home prices are up, sales are down

Home sales are down slightly. It isn’t because people are not buying homes, it is because fewer people are selling homes. Demand remains strong and that has driven prices up.

“Incredibly low supply continues to be the primary impediment to more sales, but there’s no question the combination of higher prices and mortgage rates are pinching the budgets of prospective buyers, and ultimately keeping some from reaching the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Median existing-home sale prices in the U.S. hit a record $264,800. The number of existing home sales declined for the 3rd month. Here in St. Paul average days on market have dropped below 25 for the months of April, May, and June.

Click graphic to enlarge –

If you are planning on selling your home now might be a better time to do it. The infographic does not have numbers for the bold North, but you can contact me for local real estate numbers and I can evaluate your home and let you know about how much it will sell for.

Random advice from the internet

Many of us use the internet to do a little research when we have a question. When looking for answers to questions about buying or selling a home pay close attention to the source.

Real estate is local but there is a lot of generic real estate content on the internet. The articles often have titles with numbers in them. They suggest there are six things you should know or five things you should do etc.

When reading advice found on the internet look for a date on the article and where it was written and who wrote it. California has the most real estate agents per capita and a large number of real estate writers.

Generic information about real estate is easy to find. It is everywhere and everyone is a real estate expert.

Topics about how to get a house ready to sell and how to win in a multiple offer situation are generic topics. Articles about sellers disclosures, condo doc, termite inspections, escrows, utility costs and more are area specific.

Some municipalities require inspections before a home can be sold. Start by going to your city website and searching for information. The rules for selling a home in St. Paul are different from the requirements in Minneapolis. The city of South St. Paul requires a “time of sale” inspection. The city of West St. Paul does not require an inspection.

Real estate is regulated by the state department of commerce. Most commerce departments have websites. Those sites have information about local laws and even have information about how to get a real estate license.

Information can also be found on state attorney general websites and state department of health websites.

Moving day – it happens every month

I can understand how it happens. People have to move in a hurry and they get evicted. They don’t have any way to move their stuff. Most of their belongings end up in a dumpster. Sometimes items that are usable or even new and still in the original box end up in landfills.

Towards the beginning of every month, I see dumpsters filled with furniture and household items.

It costs money to move. Stuff costs money. Having space for stuff costs money. I have occasionally pulled furniture from the alley and donated it to the local thrift shop which is run by a church.

There has to be a better way. A more environmentally friendly way and a way to get these household items back to their owners or get them in the hands of someone who can use them.

Counting Minnesota Realtors

The chart shows how many Minnesotan’s are Realtors and the data is from the national association of Realtors. (NAR) Realtors are members of the national association of Realtors and Realtor is not a job title it is a membership. Not all Realtors have real estate licenses and not all members sell real estate but a large percentage of us do.

A person with a real estate license can sell real estate without being a member of the NAR, yet the numbers on this chart accurately reflect a trend. The number of Realtors is rising but very slowly. There 19,515 Minnesota Realtor members as of December of 2017 and that is up slightly from 2016 which is why I did not bother making a new chart.

As older member retire Realtors as a group is getting younger. At one point the median age was around 57 now it is 53 and has been for the past few years.

The number of Realtors peaked nationwide in 2006 and in Minnesota.

There are plenty of REALTORS®. My theory as to why there are fewer today than there were in 2006 is because of the economy. Typically when employment is high and there are plenty of jobs fewer people decide to start businesses or become REALTORS® (Independent contractors)

Usually this time of year I get a lot of phone calls from people who are interested in becoming real estate agents. I think I have gotten one call so far this year.

It is hard to calculate how many homes are sold each year in Minnesota. If I were to guess I would guess that we have about half as many home sales as there are REALTORS®.

Cats kill 500 million birds a year

House cat – in the house

Cats roam free in my neighborhood and they make little cats too. There are people who believe that it is alright to let their cat roam free and that it is a cat’s right to roam free.

The house cat has long been listed among the 100 most dangerous invasive species. They kill millions of birds and other small animals each year to the point of extinction. A cat is a pet when kept inside but once when outside it is a heartless killer.

“If we extrapolate the results of this study across the country and include feral cats, we find that cats are killing more than 4 billion animals per year, including at least 500 million birds. Cat predation is one of the reasons why one in three American bird species are in decline,” said Dr. George Fenwick, President of American Bird Conservancy [wildlife management institute]

There was a study that shows that they only bring home about 25% of what they kill. They eat some of what they kill but they leave a lot of it where they killed it.

Being a free-range cat in St. Paul is not good for the cat either. Here are some statistics:

200 cats are killed annually in traffic

Life expectancy of a cat allowed to roam is only three to four years

Confined cats can live beyond 14 years

Over 1,200 cats are picked up each year by animal control

Roaming cats may be a nuisance by urinating and defecating in sandboxes and gardens

Outdoor cats are susceptible to injury or death from other predatory animals

Outdoor cats are predators to wildlife such as birds

Be a good neighbor and keep your cat inside.