Local Market Conditions & home prices

Listing Vs. Sales for 2009 St. Paul, MN

Stpaulhomesales_wm

The numbers on the chart were calculated using data in the RMLS, for St. Paul, MN for all single family housing including townhouses and condos. The numbers are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Normally I do a week by week chart so the ups and downs can be seen each week.  This chart goes month by month.  What I was trying to figure out is why our inventory of homes on the market continue to drop when home purchases still lag behind listings.  It seems like the inventory should continue to grow because so far this year there have been 5072 new listings, and 3215 went into the pending status which means they got offers on them that were accepted by the sellers. 

Out of the 3215, 2874 of those offers resulted in closed sales. It is very possible that more of the homes that received offers in say September, just have not closed yet which would account for most of the gap between the pending and the closed.  It usually takes about thirty days from the time both parties agree to the terms of the sale until the sale actually closes. Some of them Will not close, most often it Will be because of problems with the financing and the appraisal. Those homes often go right back on the market.

there are also 2020 homes that were listed but they were either taken off the market before they sold or the listing contract expired.  Some of those homes were put back on the market and are either still on the market, or have pended or closed.   The inventory of homes on the market continues to drop so I am going to suggest that a large percentage of those expired and canceled listings have not been sold and remain off the market.  I believe there are sellers who want to sell but can not and the most likely reason is that they are asking too much for the home.

Overall homes sales for the same period  are ahead of what they were in 2008 and in 2007, and we are up about 15% from last year. The average sales price is about 22%  less than it was last year. Part of the reason is the large number of foreclosures on the market and the banks started having what amounted to a fire sale and has now become a street auction last fall.

For buyers there are fewer choices and the most desirable homes are selling very quickly.  Buyers still seem to think that the home they want will be around for awhile and that has not been the case for the last several months. 

For traditional sellers I promise if the home is priced right it will sell quickly.  Unfortunately how much a seller owes on a home or how much money they 'need' does not affect the value of the home and should not be reflected in the price.

2 comments on “Listing Vs. Sales for 2009 St. Paul, MN
  1. Brad Rachielles says:

    Clearly some things ar different here on the west coast, but out here, the inventory is locally inder 2.0 months and several cities under 1.6 months. The “Short Sale”, where the seller owes more on the home than what it is worth, seems to be accounting for MANY of the failed pending sales. These are often complex situations, but it appears that the lender just hasn’t been able to decide that they are willing or needing to do: accept a fair offer at market value or foreclose. In the latter situation, the pending sale just does not happen if there was a pending at all…. for the present owner. The next owner (the lender) appears to have no problem selling foreclosed properties. Much of the bank owned inventory is said not to have hit the market in CA yet. Right now, inventory is a tough problem for buyers.. Multiple offers for over asking price are seen frequently, at least on the really desireable properties (as you say, “that are priced appropriately”).

    Good post – always great photography.

    Brad Rachielles, Realtor(R), CA

  2. T says:

    Many of our short sales don’t close, in fact right now foreclosures are getting offers at three times the rate as short sales. Most agents won’t recommend buying a short sale and consumers have figured it out that they really are liar listings.

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