It isn't Wonderful, But is It That Bad?

I gathered some data from property sales data from the MLS for St. Paul Minnesota, residential property, all types.  What I found is that on average sellers who sold homes in 2007 got slightly less for them than sellers who sold homes in 2006 did.   The first chart is average sales price by year for St. Paul homes, and I pulled data for the past five years.  I also have a table with the median price, because government agencies like to use that number and people are used to seeing it.



Fewer homes sold this year than last year, since there are only a couple of weeks until the end of the year we can assume that  about 30 more homes may sell this year, and will not add enough data to change the numbers.  Instead of  spinning these numbers like the main stream media does I’ll just leave them posted.

The  charts were made using number form the regional MLS.  The data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 

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11 Replies to “It isn't Wonderful, But is It That Bad?”

  1. This is very informative and useful. Kudos! Keep posting! Thanks.

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  2. So, if you’re the Ramsey County Assessor, that looks like a healthy gain for this year, right?

  3. Guess it was at least enough to raise my property taxes 14%. The properties that were sold this year represent about 4% of all residential properties in St. Paul. My theory is that just the homes that decreased in value were sold this year. šŸ™‚

  4. Interesting data. We’ve seen similar figures in our market. I’m really curious to see which way things go in 08.

  5. Interesting data. We’ve seen similar figures in our market. I’m really curious to see which way things go in 08.

  6. Teresa – At least your charts look pretty!

  7. Patient Buyer says:

    It isn’t so bad – yet.

    If the downturn in prices was accompanied by normal sales volume, then we would clearly have a plateau in prices. However, with the market definitely being a buyer’s one, we have in essence a standoff. It is the slow sales volume that predicts further price declines.

    I know I keep beating this drum, but this has been the biggest asset price inflation in the history of the world (the whole US housing market runup), and many decisions that have been made (by individuals) over the past few years had more to do with money than with shelter.

    Seattle finally peaked this fall, with a slight decline. This is a nationwide phenomenon, but we are not all on exactly the same timetable.

    Right on schedule, commercial real estate has started to soften, and two very large players (MBS and Macklowe) are in the news over default issues. Between them, we are talking about over a billion dollars. Tip of the iceberg. Commercial always follows residential, with a lag.

    Some say there has never been a better time to buy. I say that there has only been one better time to sell (2005-ish).

    Sell now for whatever you can get, it won’t go higher anytime soon. You missed the peak, but there is still time to lock in some of the bubble gains.

    I am watching prices tick down by the week, and have decided that next fall may be the better deals. We need one more disappointing summer to drill home the fact that we had a bubble peak instead of normal run-up to a plateau. The stagnant sales prove this out (for now).

    We have had prices soar so high above historic rates of growth, and the price to rent and price to income ratios bear this out. It’s probably going to be a slow summer, with tighter lending due to the large banks taking further write-downs and developing cold feet over anyone but the best credit risks.

    While it is true that they may not be making any more land, right now they’re not making more money faster than they’re not making more land.


  8. The Kansas City market has seen fewer homes that have sold but our homes have still slightly gone up in value.

  9. Ruthmarie Hicks says:

    The 4% in median home prices is barely statistically significant and the difference in average price wouldn’t even come near to being significant.

    The most significant figure is the lowered volume. In my area inventories are very low. People are afraid to put their homes on the market creating pent up need for desirable housing. I have people who want to sell and move up – but can’t because there is nothing on the market that they want One has to look at cause and also determine what “normal volume” was before everything went crazy. Comparing real estate sales volume from 2005 is like comparing normal rainfall inches per hour to hurricane Katrina.

  10. Have we hit bottom yet?

  11. Seems like we have hit bottom on many neighborhoods but not all.

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